Shadow banks gasp for air

Also in today’s edition: TV pays to be free; Living with the virus

Good morning! Europe is at it again with a new wave of regulations. The latest? A deforestation law that demands that chocolate makers prove their cocoa wasn’t grown on deforested land. This means every cocoa bean headed to the EU must be trackable to its farm via GPS. Thereby, in Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producing nation, farmers are busy pointing their smartphones skyward to capture their farm coordinates. Per The Wall Street Journal, those near forests are a bit jittery. The law kicks in at the end of this year, and if Europe gets too fussy, chocolate might become even pricier.

🎧 Covid is Getting FLiRT-y. Also in today’s episode: AstraZeneca faces the music over vaccine side effects. Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Soumya Gupta, Pushpita Dey and Anup Semwal also contributed to this edition.

The Market Signal* 

Stocks & Economy: The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in a remote province of the country has raised alarm levels in West Asia. The vortex of war in West Asia would expand quickly if there is even a hint of foul play. 

Big tech: Perhaps no company’s earnings were as eagerly anticipated as Nvidia’s. Analysts, on average, are expecting the AI chipmaker to report a 242% jump in earnings for the quarter ending in April. The stock is up nearly 90% this year. Even though the expectations seem unrealistic, any downward deviation will have a severe impact on the market as a whole. 

Metal prices are going through the roof. Gold, silver and copper are near their record highs. Silver is now up 35% and gold 18% this year. 

Asian shares were largely upbeat in morning trade. The GIFT Nifty indicates a flat opening for Indian equities. 

BANKING

NBFCs In A Spot

The pioneering founder of a non-banking financial company (NBFC) once described the industry’s oversight regime as strangulation by regulation. The Reserve Bank of India telling banks last November to steeply raise the risk weight for loans given to NBFCs by 25 percentage points landed like a heavy punch. The growth of bank lending to them halved to 15.3% in March 2024 from a year ago. The cost of funds for NBFCs, especially those rated AA and lower, has risen sharply. 

NBFCs are exiting some businesses and conserving capital. Some are raising money overseas while others are going asset light with strategies such as co-lending with banks. But that too is coming under regulatory pressure, according to one report. Today’s story in The Core is about how the NBFCs are struggling to adjust to new regulatory norms and the changing financial landscape.

PODCAST

Join journalist Puja Mehra as she breaks down one story to give you all the context you need to understand how it fits into the larger picture of India's economy.

In this episode of How India’s Economy Works, she speaks to Chakshu Roy about challenges faced by MPs in contributing to economic policymaking, the importance of research support, the limitations of the parliamentary system, and much more.

MEDIA

The Future Is Free

Free for consumers, that is. Beyond the streaming wars of India’s top broadcasters, there is an entertainment market blooming. Business Standard reports free-to-air TV channels are raking in ad revenue, largely run by smaller, regional broadcasters targeting poorer, single-TV homes. 

These channels run endless movies and shows without charging viewers via state broadcaster DD’s Freedish and on connected TV systems offered by TV-makers such as Samsung. And because they are free, FTA channels are beating premium ones in viewership by a mile, enticing mass consumer goods advertisers such as Dabur, Emami, and Hindustan Unilever. 

Cut the premium: Meanwhile, pricey entertainment is struggling to make ends meet. Multiplexes are renegotiating rent agreements and rethinking their capital expenditure plans. Their business is struggling as the pipeline of film releases dries up. 

HEALTHCARE

FLiRTing With The Virus

It has been four years since the Coronavirus shut down the world, sparking a once-in-a-century panic and disruption, the aftereffects of which have still not subsided. Variants of the Covid-19 germ have come in waves every summer with unfailing regularity. This summer is no different. 

Kerala and Maharashtra have so far reported about 250 cases of FLiRT, the nickname of KP.2, which is a sub-variant of Omicron. 

Singapore reported last week that Covid cases doubled in the island nation and the government was on alert. 

The US is also preparing for a summer wave of the FLiRT variant. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell tested positive for Covid and had to deliver a scheduled lecture on Sunday by video. 

The Signal

It was always known that humans will have to learn to live with the Coronavirus and that its impact would become increasingly milder as the human body gets more accustomed to its behaviour. Most people now treat Covid like the flu or common cold. However, the danger of complacency cannot be overstated. Experts have warned of the possibility of new, more virulent outbreaks. Yet, Astrazeneca’s admission that its vaccine may have had fatal side effects may fuel vaccine hesitancy. Older vaccines may also become ineffective against newer strains. Although far from complete, a treaty under the aegis of the World Health Organization is in the works to combat future pandemics, including by helping develop pre-emptive vaccines. Meanwhile, it won’t hurt to keep washing hands and wearing masks. 

FYI

Homecoming: Fintech firm Pine Labs has secured a Singapore court’s approval to shift domicile back to India via a reverse-merger; Indian startups looking to list on the stock exchanges have been moving back home. 

New team: Tata Digital’s new CEO Naveen Tahiliyani has appointed a new executive team for the firm’s flagship Tata Neu app; the team will focus on fixing its loyalty programme NeuPass. 

Fag end: Jamie Dimon, who has led JPMorgan Chase since 2006, will step down within the next five years. The search for a successor is on, 68-year-old Dimon told investors. 

Broadening base: The RBI and market regulator Sebi are discussing ways to allow asset reconstruction companies to buy debt held by mutual funds. 

Raising the stakes: The prosecutor at the International Criminal Court has sought the arrest of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, defence minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh.

THE DAILY DIGIT

233 GW

Peak power consumption on May 6. It was just 2 GW short of the government’s projection of peak demand in May and more than 12 GW above peak consumption in the same month last year. Peak demand in June is forecast to be 240 GW. (The Economic Times)

FWIW

The airborne burglar: Even in the sky, there’s no escaping India’s skilled pickpockets. Rajesh Kapoor, arrested last week, reportedly swiped goods worth Rs 1 crore from fliers. How did he go unnoticed by crew and passengers? Kapoor had a clever scheme. He targeted connecting flights, packed with senior citizens returning from visiting their kids abroad. Tired and distracted, they were perfect victims. Kapoor also paid extra for priority boarding, taking advantage of the mostly empty cabin and wide-open overhead bins. That’s when he’d sift through carry-on bags for jewels, cash, and other valuables. The Economic Times reports that Kapoor even had the nerve to ask passengers who had kept their bags on their lap to keep them in the bin. Talk about audacity🤐!

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