How will foreign policy fare after the world's biggest election?

Good Morning! The BJP’s election manifesto promises to make India a trusted, reliable voice of the Global South and a true friend to the world. It exhorts voters to choose Narendra Modi to make India a global superpower. It has so far leveraged its democratic credentials, thriving economy, and geopolitical opportunities to undertake risky diplomatic manoeuvres. The new government will likely face pushbacks. That’s today's story. Plus, a bunch of long reads for the weekend. 

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Stuti Bhatnagar

With India positioning itself as an influential voice on matters of global importance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foreign policy is under the microscope.

A post on X (formerly Twitter) in April asked Indians to “Vote for BJP and make Bharat a superpower globally!” The quote was accompanied by an image that pointed to the party’s “Target Audience” (India) and the “Actual Audience”, the entire world. What appeared to be a standard promotional tweet by India’s ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), marked the start of a six-week election campaign which will draw to a close on June 1. Results will be announced on June 4. 

While foreign policy tends to be a minor subject in Indian elections, the BJP’s post shows that this election campaign is equally focused on India’s place in the world, with the party taking every opportunity to boast of its global achievements since it took power in 2014. India has great-power aspirations and the last few years have been significant for its foreign policy.

India hosted the G20 Summit in September 2023 and was recognised as the world’s fifth-largest economy. It has expanded international partnerships with new trade and security deals, championed the cause of the Global South, and promoted its claim to a global leadership position. 

The global player

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has constructed a narrative of a “New India” that is open for business and ready for a seat at the global table. In its 2024 election manifesto, in addition to highlighting its vision and “success” in “Good Governance and Vikas (Development)”, the BJP has highlighted its many foreign policy achievements. 

The manifesto promises Modi’s guarantee for a Bharat First foreign policy, one that will uphold India as a global friend — a “reliable, trusted and dependable voice”, a leader of the Global South. The BJP promises to strengthen India’s maritime vision, expanding its diplomatic network and strategic partnerships if returned to power. 

The manifesto claims that “Bharat is the mother of democracy” and that India’s “civilisational values, thoughts, wisdom and traditional knowledge have found a place of pride at the world stage”. This flows consistently with arguments that previous governments have held India back with their insistence on non-alignment, secularism, and preference for values over pragmatism in foreign policy. 

Modi has been credited with giving “wings to India's aspirations of playing a larger international role”, through an assertive foreign policy that has upheld crucial national security interests while championing soft power and the promotion of India’s cultural heritage. 

As the election campaign heats up, the opposition has lost no time in drawing attention to the BJP’s failures and shortcomings, which have, in turn, provoked the PM’s party to pooh-pooh previous governments as cowardly peaceniks. 

Neighbours first to shutting them out

Modi began his innings as Prime Minister of India by inviting leaders of neighbouring nations to his swearing-in ceremony in 2014, indicating a neighbour-first foreign policy. The next year, Modi made a surprise stopover in Pakistan on his way back from a three-day tour of Russia and Afghanistan, ostensibly to wish Nawaz Sharif, the then Prime Minister, on his birthday. But by the end of the first five-year term, Pakistan-based terrorists had twice attacked Indian army camps and India responded with missile attacks on camps across the border, erasing the political goodwill. 

India’s relations with China too followed a similar trajectory. Within months of returning to power, Modi rolled out the red carpet for visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping. Bonhomie was the dominant theme in handout pictures as the two leaders chatted away with Chola sculptures of Tamil Nadu’s Mahabalipuram in the background. The relationship soured soon after Himalayan border troops of the two countries clashed in the Galwan Valley. India banned Chinese social media apps and put curbs on investments and imports. 

The BJP’s election campaign has shifted from an initial focus on economic development to familiar tropes of inflammatory statements on Pakistan and India’s religious divide — painting the Congress as a party that favours Muslims and failed to act decisively against terrorism emanating from Pakistan. 

In projecting its proactive and muscular foreign policy, BJP leaders have returned to speeches about giving a befitting reply to Pakistan. There have been renewed calls for the integration of Pakistan-administered Kashmir with India. Modi has lashed out at the opposition, the multi-party political alliance, INDIA, an acronym for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, calling its leaders “cowards” who were “scared of Pakistan's nuclear power”.

Any incoming government will inherit foreign policy achievements but also continuing challenges. India has struggled to retain influence with almost all of its neighbours participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Additionally, anti-India sentiment has grown in Maldives and Bangladesh. 

While the BJP manifesto makes a rudimentary promise to follow a neighbourhood-first policy, the Congress has pledged to repair India’s relations with its neighbours — specifically with Nepal and Maldives. 

The direct territorial challenge from China on India’s northern border continues to be a flashpoint for active conflict. Bilateral negotiations have made slow progress and both sides have intensified border patrols and infrastructure development. 

Although the BJP has promised robust infrastructure development in border areas, it has largely failed to resolve this issue. China remains conspicuously absent from the party’s election rhetoric — as noted by the opposition parties.

A significant part of India’s foreign policy overtures in the Modi years has been towards Western powers and the broader Indo-Pacific region. The West, especially the US, sees India as a viable, democratic counterweight to China. It is an important cog in the US’s strategy to “contain” Beijing. India’s strong democratic credentials and respect for the rule of law at home and abroad add to its value. 

However, concerns over democratic backsliding, restrictions on press freedom and a dwindling human rights record, have begun to strain New Delhi’s foreign policy engagements. This became apparent last year, when Canada blamed India for the assassination of Canadian citizen and Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver. India considered Singh a terrorist associated with the extremist Khalistan movement. 

While the incident soured India-Canada relations, similar charges have since been made by the US and Australia, accusing Indian agencies of international espionage and using criminals for assassinations. While the Modi government’s responses have ranged from diplomatic restraint to outright rejection, these issues are likely to become an irritant for future governments.

Twin conundrums in Ukraine and Gaza

India’s international posture has also displayed a lack of clarity in an increasingly polarising world. This became clear when it refused to condemn or sanction Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. India chose a path distinct from its Western friends. The Indian leadership has continued to emphasise its need and right to prioritise its own interests in this case and, after initial criticism, India’s partners have reconciled to its stand.

Similarly, Indian diplomacy was put to test following Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the latter’s invasion of Gaza. Although India has historically supported Palestine, the Modi government has fostered a close partnership with Israel over the past decade that extends to an ideological alignment between the BJP and Israel.

Unlike the Ukraine conflict, where India stood to benefit directly and immediately from its friendship with Russia, the stakes are relatively low in the Israel-Hamas war. It reflected in the clarity and steadfastness of its stance vis-à-vis Russia and the ambivalent, see-sawing approach to Gaza. 

India initially abstained from United Nations resolutions calling for a ceasefire but, in December 2023, voted for a draft resolution in the UN General Assembly that demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire and unconditional release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The conflict will remain a challenge for any incoming government in Delhi. 

By all accounts, this is a polarising election between two distinct schools of thought: one that considers Modi as the “best candidate” and a “harbinger of change” and another that highlights the damage his administration has inflicted on India’s democratic ethos and economy.

The impact of domestic and regional challenges as well as India’s efforts to walk a tightrope in global politics will undoubtedly continue to shape foreign policy in coming years. While the government celebrates Indian democracy, it has called out Western nations “interfering” in its domestic politics. 

However, given the geopolitical environment, broader foreign policy goals are likely to remain unchanged no matter which government comes to power — not necessarily owing to ideological approaches or an activist foreign policy but because of the continued value of India’s economy and strategic relevance to global affairs.  

Stuti Bhatnagar is a visiting researcher at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University. She specialises in Indian foreign policy and South Asian politics. She is the author of “India’s Pakistan Policy: How Think Tanks Are Shaping Foreign Relations”, published by Routledge in 2021.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.

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